The outlook suggests that during the 2017 southwest monsoon season (June – September), . More specifically, below-normal rainfall is most likely over broad areas of north-western, central and south eastern parts of South Asia and above-normal rainfall is most likely over broad areas of eastern and the south-western parts of the region. Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas.
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| Consensus outlook - Monsoon 2017 |
As in above image : Probability of the most likely category for the 2017 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
over South Asia based on this consensus statement. The consensus-based
probability forecast map was prepared based on model forecasts at global as well as
national levels synthesized through subjective expert assessment.
Cities with Above Normal Rain :
- Kerala - Kochi, Trivandrum
- Tamilnadu - Coimbatore,Madurai
- Odisha - Bhubaneshwar
- Andhra Pradesh - Visakhapatnam, Vijaywada
- Andaman Nikobar Islands
The climate outlook for the 2017 southwest monsoon season (June to September) was finalized during the tenth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-10), held at Thimphu, Bhutan during 24–26 April 2017 attended by experts from the South Asian countries.
It was conducted with participants from 6 South Asian countries, namely, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
The Forum deliberated on various observed and emerging climatic features that influence the performance of the southwest monsoon, such as the El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean, winter and spring Northern Hemisphere snow cover etc.
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Sources : WMO | Climate Outlook 2017 report
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